According to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the world production of almonds in 2022 was 3.734 million tons, with production led by the US, Australia, Spain, and Türkiye. The top ten producing countries in the world produce approximately 86% of the global almond supply. In 2022, the global almond crop was occupied approximately 2,385,642 hectares.

Source: FAOSTAT, find the data we pulled here.

According to the Almond Board of California, the world production of almonds in 2023 was 1.511 million metric tons, with production led by the US, Australia, Spain, and Türkiye. The top ten producing countries in the world produce approximately 99% of the global almond supply. According to the Almond Board, the US had 1,563,336 acres of almonds planted in 2023, which represents the second consecutive year of declining acreage in the US in almonds (down from a peak of over 1.66 million).

Source: the Almond Almanac, by the Almond Board of California

The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Ag Service provides additional accounting of global almond production, which records production data for a similar time period of mid-2022 to early 2023. This data is collected by USDA independent of the UN Food and Ag organization.

By all counts, the US is by far the dominant producer of almonds globally, followed distantly Australia, and then by EU countries (Spain and Italy) and other Eurasian producers. Globally, almond production has been on the rise in recent decades, with a slight contraction noted since 2020, mostly due to declining acres in the US, but also due to some acreage reduction in the EU and Australia.

One driving factor of recent acreage contractions is the relatively weak global price for almonds that’s been pervasive in recent years.

The peak in value for almond production occurred in 2014, when the US crop was valued at around $7.4 billion. These prices were driven up by a drought during the 2013-14 season, as well as growing consumer demand for almonds around the world. However, economic conditions in export markets combined with better crop conditions after 2014 contributed to the price decline, which has continued in the intervening years.

According to the USDA National Ag Statistic Service, California, the only state in the US with a meaningful commercial almond industry, produced about 2,540 million pounds of almonds in 2022 on approximately 1,350,000 acres (with an additional 280,000 almond acres not currently bearing fruit). Though value of production figures are not yet available for 2022, in 2021, when yields where higher (2,210 lbs/acre versus 1,880 lbs/acre) but acreage was slightly lower (1.32 million to 1.35 million), the US crop was worth approximately $5,028,320,000. The California almond industry includes around 7,600 growers and 100 handlers (brokers, packers, shippers, etc.). The majority of Californian almond farms are 100 acres or less.

Five counties within the state of California; Fresno, Kern, Stanislaus, Merced, and Madera accounted for 75% of the total bearing acreage, though in 2022, 16 counties in total were home to some amount of almond production, mainly in the Central Valley.

Though California is dominant in US production today, extremely small-scale almond production also exists in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, and as climates and conditions continue to change, states like Idaho and some in the southeast are becoming increasingly interested in exploring almond production.

Despite price declines in recent years, almond acreage in the US has not declined, and is in fact still growing slightly year over year. This fits into a long term growth trend in almond production in the US, which due to the long time horizon involved in investing in and producing an almond crop, often does not respond strongly to short term trends. Macro trends, from the rise of a global middle class to growing consumer interest in eating whole foods like nuts, are more serious drivers of almond production.

Varietals

All almonds fall into one of two categories; bitter and sweet. Sweet almonds are the primary type used for cooking, and as a source of almond oil and almond meal. Bitter almond oil is used to make flavor extracts. Though there are more than 30 almond varieties commonly planted in the US (and 70 around the world), only five are currently planted on more than 50,000 acres in the US, and four, Nonpareil, Carmel, California types, and Mission types, make up 85% of all almonds grown in California.

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Top Almond Varieties in the US

California produces about 30 varieties of almonds, with more than 98% of production represented by 13 major varieties. However, a few varieties are particularly dominant in terms of acres planted and uses in production.

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Nonpareil Almonds

Nonpareil (sweet) is the most popular variety of almond in the US for commercial cultivation, accounting for about 40% of annual production. Nonpareil are an attractive variety due to their thin, soft shell that’s easily shucked, revealing a large drupe (the meat or kernel of the nut) that’s ideal for snacking or cutting applications. Nonpareil almond is a paper or soft-shell variety with an attractive kernel of a medium size, uniform shape, smooth surface and light (blond) colored skin. Nonpareil receives a premium price due to high market demand. Other varieties with similar characteristics are sometimes marketed as Nonpareil Types, which include Sonora, Independence, and Supareil.

In a multi-year study carried out by the California Almond Board, Nonpareil was identified as the most productive variety amongst dozens tested, in addition to having relatively low rates of producing doubles (two kernels developing in one shell), and blooming at a desirable time on average (not too early). Despite continuous, extensive, and ongoing breeding efforts, Nonpareil is also a particularly old variety, originally produced in 1879. Harvest of Nonpareil usually takes place between August and October, depending on the location.

According to USDA NASS, there were 399,489 acres of Nonpareil almond trees standing in the US in 2022.

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California type Almonds

California type almonds are another popular group of varieties in the US for commercial cultivation, with Monterey and Carmel (two California type varieties) being the second and fifth most commonly planted varieties in the state. California type almonds tend to have slightly more diverse shapes than Nonpareil, including having longer drupes and more wrinkled surfaces, which makes them preferable for slicing and slivering applications. They also tend to have more variation in flavor profile, with a greater range of possible astringent, bitter, sour, and sweet components, making them a slightly less premium variety, though often preferred for roasting and blanching applications.

California varieties, including Monterey and Carmel, are known for early blooming and high yield potential, as much as 60-85 pounds per tree annually, or nearly 4,000 almonds per tree (which falls just slightly below Nonpareil). These varieties are often also used as pollinator trees for Nonpareil varieties. Harvest of California types like Monterey usually takes place late in the season, usually 5-6 weeks after Nonpareil, depending on the location.

Most major varieties produced in California except for Marcona can be marketed as California type. These include all Nonpareil type varieties; some “Mission” type varieties, and others.

According to USDA NASS, there were 163,757 acres of Monterey almond trees standing in the US in 2022.

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Mission type Almonds

Mission type almonds are another popular group of varieties in the US for commercial cultivation, with Butte (a Mission type variety) being the fourth most commonly planted variety in the state. Mission type trees tend to produce hard-shelled nuts with the shortest and widest drupes and deep wrinkles, making them desirable for snack mixes, as they end to hold seasonings well. They also tend to have the darkest appearance and thus the strongest flavor profile among the main types, making them excellent for roasting (though not well-suited for blanching). Mission, Fritz, and Padre are other popular Mission types. For years Butte, Padre, and Fritz have also been marketed under “California” type as they share the blanchable characteristic that defines that type. Production of Mission and Ruby are diminishing, while Marcona has only a small share of production.

Mission varieties, including Butte, are known for high yield potential, nearly 4,200 almonds per tree. Harvest of Mission types usually takes place latest in the season of all varieties, as much as 45 days after Nonpareil, depending on the location.

According to USDA NASS, there were 163,757 acres of Butte almond trees standing in the US in 2022.

Market

Based on the Research and Markets Report, the global almond market was worth $8.156 billion in 2020 ($9.59 billion in 2023) and will grow to about $11.814 billion (at a CAGR of 5.44%) by 2027. The global market for almonds is facing positive headwinds as consumers have a good perception of their positive health benefits (especially as a whole food), but also as an ingredient in processed foods, especially alternative milks, oils, and flours. In the US, almonds are the most consumed tree nut. Almonds are also relatively shelf-stable and don’t require refrigeration, they are easily transportable and an attractive snack, and are generally accepted around the globe. In the US, almonds are leading the pack in terms of driving increases in tree nut consumption.

On the production side, especially in California, challenges continue to mount—from water availability to pollinator issues, which has prevented the US industry from reaching a state of dramatic oversupply. According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, US producers exported $4.5 billion worth of almonds in 2022. This means US producers shipped 2.56 billion pounds of almonds in 2022/2023, down slightly from the previous marketing year. Between 60-70% of the total US almond is exported, meaning that the total value of US almond production is $7 billion.

The true addressable market for almond harvest and management technologies will be approximately equal to the cost of labor needed to manage and harvest almonds. So to determine the value of a specific technology to the sector, it’s necessary to understand the costs associated with almond production.

Successful almond growers manage a complex production system that takes careful and continuous management over a variety of plant life-stages. From the origination of an almond production business, the planning process until the first harvest can be around 3 years, with the orchard reaching its productive peak between 5 and 8 years. A commercial almond orchard generally only remains productive for 20 to 25 years before it is removed and replanted. Managing production and cash flow over that time horizon is often a challenge.

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Almond Harvest

Almonds may be harvested by hand during their first harvest, but most orchards are harvested with mechanical shakers, and then mechanically swept, picked up, and hauled to the huller. This process might be done by the farm itself with owned equipment and hired labor, or it might be contracted out to a custom almond harvester. Labor is required to operate the equipment, but also to hand rake nuts that are missed by the sweeper and to do other support tasks.

• Almond harvest generally runs from mid-August to October, depending on geography, location, and climatic factors.
• The harvest process begins with the shaker head attaching to the tree trunk, which then shakes the trunk, causing the almonds to fall from the tree onto the ground. From there, nuts are allowed to dry naturally for anywhere from a few days to two weeks (to achieve a hull moisture content of about 10-12%) and then nuts are blown from around the tree. A pickup machine then gathers the nuts and loads them to be hauled out of the orchard.
• One acre of almonds is likely to yield more than 2,000 pounds of almonds, depending on the variety and other factors.
• Almonds are then hauled to a huller/ sheller facility. If not taken directly for processing, almonds may be stockpiled, as growers hold on to almond stocks to await greater demand in the market. Almonds can also be sold in-shell.

Common Almond Farm Business Model

Almond growers sell shelled or unshelled almonds for consumption and processing to wholesalers, retailers, food manufacturers, and other buyers, or in rare cases, process nuts themselves and sell ingredients (dry roasted, blanched, sliced, chopped almonds, etc.) or finished products (snack mixes, bars, flour, milks, etc.). If unshelled or otherwise processed almonds are sold, excess casing (hulls and shells) can provide a small additional revenue stream, as they are used in the livestock industry as feed and bedding.

Therefore, the success of an almond orchard business will depend on the yields achieved, the quality of the product, the price, and the distribution networks they are able to access. Additionally, almond growers must consider other costs such as labor, fertilizer, pest management, land costs (including land rent if leasing), as well as the potential for unexpected weather or market conditions.

Growers sell almonds in the US by the pound or ton. After almonds are taken to the sheller/huller for processing, they will then move on to the handler to be sized, sorted, and graded and stored in bulk containers until sold, shipped, or further processed.

Packaging varies based on buyer demands— though in-shell almonds are generally packed in sacks, shelled almonds might be packaged in cartons or fiber bulk bins, while more highly processed almonds (cut, roasted, blanched, etc.) might be packed in plastic containers or bags to protect against moisture and oxygen.

There are a few different channels that growers commonly use to deliver almonds to market. The most common is to contract the sale of almonds, with a price per unit and total quantity determined in advance of harvest. These contracts may be with wholesale produce packers, shippers, food manufacturers, or directly with retailers (especially in the case of larger farmers, packing and shipping functions may be carried out by the grower). Alternatively, growers can store excess almonds for multiple years as they await a buyer or better market conditions. Finally, almonds can be sold directly to consumers through on-farm sales or farm stands, though a very small amount of the total US crop is moved in this fashion.

The business model for almond production requires significant upfront investment that must be earned back over the course of a orchard’s productive life. Though trees will start producing nuts as early as the fifth year (or as late as the twelfth), they often don’t come into their productive prime until after their seventh or eighth season. As the orchard ages, yield and quality generally decline and the orchard will need to be removed and replaced after about 25 years. There is an expectation that as much as 1% of trees will need to be replaced annually.

The yield of the average acre of almond can vary significantly based on a number of factors, especially variety and geography, though the average yield per acre in 2022 was 2,040 lbs, according to USDA. Many factors also determine the actual price per unit of almonds a given grower receives (though the average in 2021 was $1.76/lbs USD). Because of the difficulty of determining these two factors, in addition to the impossibility of generalizing about input costs and other expenses on a particular operation, determining in which year an orchard might become profitable is not possible to generalize.

The price that an almond producer receives is dependent upon variety, timing, quality, and other market factors. Specific quality standards vary by geography and purchaser.

• More on USDA Grades & Standards (shelled and unshelled)
• More on Grading from California Almonds

Almond Crop Budget

It is critical to understand that farm economics and budgets vary widely between individual farm operations, as well as by year, as a result of a landscape of factors, from water availability to input costs. Because of these variations in cost of production, it difficult to generalize about the economic status of a given grower or region.

Almond Costs

• Navel Orangeworm - the primary pest of almonds in California. It has several agricultural hosts such as pistachios, walnuts and pomegranates as well as nonagricultural hosts in the Californian landscape. The female moths lay their eggs on the suture of the almond hull. The larvae hatch, chew through the hull and shell to feed on the nut. There can be more than one larvae found feeding in a nut. Navel orangeworm larval damage can lead to fungal infections such as aflatoxins. Almonds are most vulnerable during hull split. Key control methods include winter sanitation which is the removal of mummy nuts, population monitoring, mating disruption, choosing resistant varieties, early harvest, as well as biological controls, insecticides, and organic methods are also available. Monitoring for navel orangeworm can include egg traps, pheromone traps, and degree-day calculations. Growers will use one or more of these methods to monitor navel orangeworm populations in their orchards.
• Stink bugs - Stink bugs develop in non-tree vegetation on orchard orchards and migrate to trees in the spring, though some types overwinter within the orchard itself. Damage usually occurs from May through July, and effects the kernel, but causing it to become wrinkled and misshapen. Spraying (a broad-spectrum insecticide) is an effective treatment for stink bugs, though it’s important to confirm that the orchard is being effected by the insect, rather than suffering from other physiological problems.
• Leaffooted bugs - Feeding by leaffooted bugs on nuts can cause almonds to wither and abort, to gum internally, or even cause nut drop. Even after the shell hardens, their feeding can cause discolored, wrinkled, or misshapen kernels. It is easy to mistake the damage of leaffooted bugs with stink bugs and vice versa, however, leaffooted bug damage tends to occur earlier in the year, in March and April rather than May, June, and July. Even a low number of leaffooted bugs can cause substantial damage, so application of a broad spectrum pesticide is likely something to consider to target overwintering adults. Unfortunately, these can also be very disruptive to biological control agents like spider mites.
• Carpophilus truncates - A recently detected pest in almonds, this small insect can cause severe damage to almond kernels. The insect overwinters in the soil, and is able to fly up to 3 miles to find a host. Multiple generations can exist in the same year, and high humidity is particularly beneficial to this insect. The pest has also been positively identified in pistachio orchards, and is a known pest in Australia, though is relatively new to US growers. Because little is currently known about how the pest might act differently under US conditions, it is especially critical for growers to practice crop sanitation, especially destroying mummy nuts and maintaining a clean orchard during the winter.
• Ants - specifically the southern fire and and the pavement ant feed on nuts that are already on the ground. Ants can hollow out nutmeats completely. Prevalence of ants is greater in drip- and sprinkler- irrigated orchards, and in orchards with high instance of weeds or with cover crops. Management is primarily carried out through cultural control relating to keeping the orchard floor clean of both plant material and nuts during harvest. Baits and other control measures are also available.
• Spider mites - there are multiple types of spider mites that can be found in almond orchards, though all create damage to trees by sucking cell contents from leaves. Leaves then turn yellow and drop off. Severe infestations are visible by the webbing that spider mites create. Yield impacts and tree damage often result the year after the infestation occurs. Spider mites are most commonly a problem in water-stressed areas. Natural predators are important for managing mites, so biological controls are primarily recommended. Cultural controls around reducing dust in the orchard and preventing water stress are also important.
• San Jose Scale - tiny crawling insects that are winged as adults, San Jose Scale sucks plant juices while injecting a toxin, which can result in impacts from loss of tree productivity to limb death. These pests have many natural enemies, so biological control is a key strategy for dealing with infestations. Oil sprays (organically acceptable) are also useful treatments. Pheromone traps are commonly used to track populations of these insects.
• Other insects of concern include;
• Oriental Fruit Moth
• Brown mite
• European red mite
• Obliquebanded leafroller
• Peach silver mite
• Peachtree borer
• Tenlined June beetle
• Peach twig borer
• Forest tent caterpillar
• Fruittree leafroller (possible nut drop)

• Bloom diseases
• Anthracnose
• Brown Rot: Monilinia laxa; Monilinia fructicola
• Green fruit rot (Jacket rot)
• Cankers
• Bacterial canker and blast: Pseudomonas syringae (several pathovars are involved) and closely related species
• Band canker: Botryosphaeria dothidea, Diplodia seriata, Neofusicoccum mediterraneum, Neofusicoccum nonquaesitum, Neofusicoccum parvum
• Ceratocystis canker
• Wood-decaying diseases
• Armillaria mellea
• Crown gall
• Lower limb dieback
• Phytophthora root and crown rot
• Wood-decay fungi: Multiple species in the Basdiomycota including Oxyporus latemarginatus, as well as Ganoderma, Phellinus, Trametes, and Laetiporus species
• Leaf diseases
• Almond leaf scorch
• Alternaria
• Leaf blight
• Rust
• Scab
• Shot hole
• Silver leaf
• Verticillium wilt
• Yellow bud mosaic: tomato ringspot virus
• Hull and fruit infections
• Bacterial Spot
• Fruit russeting (powdery mildew-like)
• Hull rot
• Resources from the Almond Board of California are particularly informative to understanding almond pest and diseases.

• In almond orchards, weeds compete with trees for nutrients, water and light, and can contribute to the growth and spread of insect and disease problems. Different weeds are of particular concern during different seasons, and growers are encouraged to take regular surveys to stay on top of weed populations and ensure effective control method applications.
• Also, due to the shake-and-collect harvest method, a high volume of weeds on the orchard floor can make harvest more expensive and difficult.
• Weed control plans should be established before the orchard is planted, especially to prevent against perennial weed varieties.
• Weed types vary depending on geography and soil type, but some common varieties include; puncturevine, crabgrass, horseweed, and Panicum spp., and perennial weeds such as johnsongrass, nutsedge, and bermudagrass. Perennial weeds such as curly dock, field bindweed, and dallisgrass are also common.
• Managing weeds requires care to ensure it doesn’t lead to soil erosion or compaction, which can also have deleterious impacts on nutrients and water penetration. Repeated use of herbicides with the same mode of action can also lead to herbicide resistance.
• Mechanical (tillage) and chemical (herbicide) control methods are most common for weed management in the tree row, though use of mulches, subsurface irrigation, and flamers are not uncommon.

• Pocket gophers can damage almond orchards through mound-building activities
• Damage can range from direct damage to fruit (chewing, droppings on fruit) to damage to grove infrastructure (damage to irrigation hoses).
• Ground squirrels and voles are common problem species in California, which feed on plants and roots and can girdle and kill young trees.
• Additional damage can be done by mice, rats, rabbits, coyote, feral hogs, and starlings. Less common vertebrate damage may be caused by bear or beaver.