According to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the world production of grapes in 2022 was 74.942 million metric tons, down 2.4% over 2021, with production led by the China, Italy, France, and India. According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), 7.2 million hectares of grapes were grown worldwide in 2023, which represents the third consecutive year of shrinking vineyard footprint. This figure includes both table grapes and wine grapes, as well as grapes used for other purposes such as grape juice, raisins, and grape seed oil. Because FAO statistics, and other industry data, do not differentiate between table grapes and wine grapes, this information is of limited utility for understanding the scope of the table grape market.

Source: State of the Vine and Wine Sector

According to USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services, world table grape production is forecast to be up in the 2023/2024 marketing year to 28.1 million metric tons (though global exports are expected to be stagnant). This will mark the fifth consecutive year of growth in production for table grapes, in line with a trend of increasing global production that started in 2000, and which has lead to a doubling of table grape production in two decades. USDA also determined that the total table grape production of the top 5 producing countries in 2023; China, India, Türkiye, Brazil, and Uzbekistan, represented 78% of the global table grape total.

*Note that there is often meaningful discrepancies between USDA data, FAO data, and other data sources. This is a trend in specialty crop data reporting in general. As with all data, there’s an acceptable error range here that should be considered when manipulating these figures to calculate addressable market projections.

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

Though China is by far the largest producer of table grapes globally, they have only recently become a leading exporter, and only in the 2023/3024 marketing year overtook Chile to become the second largest exporter of table grapes in the world (following Peru). In 2023, more than half of the table grapes consumed in the US were imported, mainly from Central and South America.

FIGURE: 2018 Breakdown of global grape production by quantity, country, and type

According to the California Table Grape Commission, in 2022, California table grape growers, who grow 99% of all US table grapes, harvested 95.1 million boxes of grapes for domestic consumption (70%) and export markets (30%). The California Department of Food and Agriculture estimates that there were 120,000 acres of bearing and non-bearing table grape vineyards in the state in 2022, down 8,000 acres from 2021. This production represents approximately 330 unique farms.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the total (sales) value of table grape production in the United States in 2022 was $1.53 billion. The total value of exported US table grapes in 2022 was $658 million, down 1.4% from 2021. The average price of a ton of table grapes in California in 2022 was $214.13 up 17.1% from 2021. In 2023, the US crop was significantly impacted by Hurricane Hilary, which struck during critical harvest periods.

“The US [table grape] market has seen slight but steady growth in recent years. In the 2019 season, it grew more than 12%, reaching 3.3 billion pounds. In the latter part of 2020 it declined 4.7%, falling to 2.9 billion pounds, partly as a result of the pandemic and consumption declines due to the lockdown, seen in April and May. Despite a strong recovery in June, it contracted again in July. In the 2020-2021 season the decline continued in autumn. However, beginning in December 2020 each week saw robust growth for the remainder of the season, reaching 3.2 billion pounds of fruit, a growth of more than 13%. In the 2021-2022 season it continued to grow, reaching 3.53 billion pounds, more than 7% higher than the previous season.” —International Fresh Produce Association, U.S. Grape Market Report: 2021-2022

The California Table Grape Commission's annual crop report for 2020 indicates that the San Joaquin Valley produced 1,020,225 tons of table grapes, representing approximately 94% of California's total table grape production. The remaining 6% came from the Coachella Valley, which produced 67,000 tons of table grapes that year. Arizona, Texas, and Florida are also home to some sparse and occasional grape production. The California Department of Food and Agriculture estimates that there are 125,000 total table grape acres in California in 2023 (120,000 bearing, 5,000 non-bearing). These acres are concentrated in the Coachella (Riverside and Imperial counties) and San Joaquin (Fresno, Kern, Tulare, and Madera counties) Valleys.

Based on industry estimates and historical data, it's estimated that California produces between 100 and 120 million boxes of table grapes each year, with each box weighing about 19-22 pounds. This means that California's total annual table grape production ranges from approximately 1.9 to 2.6 billion pounds (or 0.9 to 1.2 million tons).

Market

Based on the Knowledge Sourcing Intelligence Report, the global table grape market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.67% (2022-2027), meaning the global market which was valued at US$62.674 billion in 2020 will reach a total market size of US$104.811 billion in 2027. Increased demand is due to growing awareness of the benefits of consuming fruits especially in critical, high-demand markets like China, India, and Turkey, and technological advancements, such as innovations for better storage, control of decay, and water loss of grapes.

According to a report by Mordor Intelligence, the global table grape market size was valued at approximately USD 18.1 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach USD 24.7 billion by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 5.2% during the forecast period (2021-2026). Knowledge Sourcing Intelligence estimates the global market for table grapes at $67 billion in 2022.

The true addressable market for table grape harvest and management automation technologies will be in large part determined by the cost of labor performed to manage and harvest table grapes. To accurately determine the value of a specific technology to the table grape sector, it’s necessary to understand table grape crop budgets.

Successful table grape growers manage a complex production system that takes careful and continuous management over a variety of shifting plant life stages. From the beginning of the vineyard planning process until the first harvest can be anywhere from 3-5 years, and remain productive for approximately 22 years. Managing production and cash flow over that time horizon is often a challenge.

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Grapevine Trellis & Training

• After the first year of establishment, a grower will install a trellis system and begin training vines in anticipation of the first yield in the third year after planting.
• Before the second season, a commercial company installs the trellis system, which will be used throughout the life of the vineyard. There are varying styles and systems of trellis systems better suited for different varieties of table grapes and vineyard setups. The most common in California table grapes include:
• Vertical shoot positioning is one of the most common trellis systems. Key features include grapevines trained to grow upright, with cordons (one or two) growing horizontally along a wire. This system provides good air circulation, and sunlight exposure and is relatively easy to manage.
• California sprawl is a trellis system more common for vigorous varieties, like Thompson Seedless. The grapevines are trained to sprawl horizontally, with canes fanned on a low wire (or the ground). This provides good access to the fruiting zone.
• Geneva Double Curtain (GDC) is an increasingly common trellis system for high-yielding varieties like Flame Seedless and Crimson Seedless. Vines are trained along a two-tiered cordon system with vertically divided canopies that are supported by multiple wires. This system is known for promoting good yields and solid fruit quality.
• Other trellis systems include the Open Gable or V-trellis system, which utilizes a V-shaped structure formed by two wires to support vines, and the Modified Lyre, which involves training vines to form a “Y” shape with horizontal canes supported by wires.
• Five training passes are usually made during the spring and summer of the second year. This process involves tying a single shoot to the stake (to begin forming the permanent structure of the vine), removing lateral shoots from the base of the vine, and tipping the shoot when it reaches the top of the stake. This usually marks the first significant labor outlay for the grower.
• Trellis often require regular repairs, and the cost of repairs tends to increase over the life of the vineyard. Weak or missing vines also must be replaced.

Common Table Grape Business Model

Table Grape growers sell grapes to wholesalers, retailers, and other buyers. The success of the business will depend on the yields achieved, the quality of produce, the price, and the distribution networks they are able to access. Additionally, table grape growers must consider other costs such as labor, fertilizer, and pest management, land costs (including land rent if leasing), as well as the potential for unexpected weather or market conditions.

Growers sell table grapes in the US in 19-pound* boxes, which contain approximately 8 individual bags or clamshells of grapes.

There are a few different channels that growers commonly use to deliver grapes to market. The most common is to contract the sale of table grapes, with a price per unit and total quantity determined in advance of harvest. These contracts may be with wholesale produce packers, shippers, or directly with retailers (especially in the case of larger farmers, packing and shipping functions may be carried out by the grower). Alternatively, table grape growers can take (most commonly, excess) table grapes to a terminal market, where they are sold based on a shifting and localized market price in bulk. Finally, table grapes can be sold directly to consumers through on-farm sales, U-pick operations, or farm stands, though a very small amount of the total US table grape crop is moved in this fashion.

The business model for table grape production requires a significant upfront investment that must be earned back over the course of a vineyard’s productive life. Though vines will start producing fruit as early as the second or third year, they often don’t come into their productive prime until their fifth or even seventh year. As the vineyard ages, yield and quality generally decline, and there is an expectation that approximately 1% of plants will need to be replaced annually. After approximately 20-30 years, the vineyard will usually reach the end of its life.

The yield of the average acre of table grape vines can vary significantly based on a number of factors, but for commercial varieties, an expectation of yield between 1,200 and 2,200 boxes per acre is reasonable. Many factors also determine the current price per unit of table grapes, and thus predicting net revenue, or determining in which year the vineyard overall might become profitable, is not possible to generalize.

*Note: Some USDA reports site table grape boxes as 18-pounds, some as 19-pounds. Our experience talking with growers has mostly featured 19-pound boxes, so we used that figure.

Table Grape Crop Budget

Understand that farm economics and budgets vary widely between individual farm operations, and annually as a result of a landscape of factors, from water availability to input costs.

Table Grape Costs

Outside Pressures on Table Grape Businesses

Worker Shortages -

• Lack of available workers for hire, especially during critical and time-sensitive parts of the season often leads to harvest reductions and high-quality table grapes being left in the field.
• Though the industry has generally not depended on the H-2A program to acquire additional workers, this is an option that could be pursued more broadly in the future, though doing so is often a time-consuming and financially costly endeavor for growers.

"The (worker) shortage is real this year, so growers will make a decision to harvest their most profitable varieties," said Ian LeMay, president of the California Fresh Fruit Association trade group. "Ultimately you might see some fruit left in the orchard. That's just a reality." Rick Deckard said it's been hard during the harvest keeping workers on the site, especially when it's "really, super hot.”

Competition from Foreign Markets

• US table grape production increasingly faces competition from Central and Latin American producers, notably Mexico in the early season and Peru in the later season.
• For example, according to the International Fresh Produce Association, in 2021-2022, “Central California volumes of table grapes produced decreased 1.3% or 21.5 million pounds, dropping its market share from 49.4% to 45.3%. Chile’s volume grew 14%, from 721 million pounds to 822 million pounds, increasing its market share from 22% to 23.3%. Peru showed the highest growth at 26.8%, increasing from 501 million pounds to more than 635.5 million pounds. Mexico’s volume grew 9%, from more than 361 million to almost 394 million pounds. Its market share grew by 0.2% due to the growth of the total market.”